Disruptive Thought

Tony Ponton's thoughts, I'll elucidate, you ruminate and then we'll debate!

Device Convergence

February 22nd, 2010

“Forgive me father for I have sinned. It has been 12 days since my last post.”
“Take two verbs and describe a noun.”

Let’s talk device convergence. Recently, while acting as members of a panel at the Smart Services Conference (2009), we were asked where we thought the evolution of mobile devices was headed. Many points of opinion were raised, here are my thoughts and predictions that I shared that day.

I believe that the mobile phone capability will move towards miniaturisation of the handset yet expansion of capability and gesture interactivity.

This demonstration at the TED conference only serves to validate this position. If you haven’t seen it yet, take a look now. It only makes sense that we would seek to remove the reliance on carrying devices and seek the freedom of movement this technology offers.

This, however, leaves us with a conundrum: How do we cater for the need for a device which allows portability, yet also supports the expanded capabilities we require (such as web browsing, eBooks, and multimedia)?

I believe that the year of 2010 will be the year of the Netpad/Slate. Early prototypes I have seen are very promising, such as the Microsoft courier and the crunch pad. However, as they tend to do, Apple promise much with their unnamed version, which will surely be based on the iPhone interface.

Google, of course, has a finger in the pie and I believe this will be the vehicle they seek for their Chrome operating system.

My opinion is the Netpad will fill that niche that the Netbook attempts to fill and yet often falls short on. It will usurp the eBook market that the Kindle currently has the monopoly on.

They were my thoughts last year. Have they changed?

No, they haven’t changed. If anything I think the convergence of many devices to the one device will take a large step forward this year.

The launch of the iPad is the start of the tidal wave and by the middle of this year we will see more complete devices being offered and the demise of the Netpad becoming a reality.

Yes I can hear the cries of derision. However, has anyone noticed that whilst the PC, in general, is holding or increasing in price Netpads continue to plummet? You decide!

Anyway they are my thoughts for today, let me know what you think.

Posted in Tech Thoughts | View Comments

  • Tony Ponton (7)
    • Welcome to the fray momentary if not a little late,
      You make some great points , a happy medium would be a good result ,will this happen? not so sure. Typically our industry goes one dramatically one way or the other.

      Interesting points raised on the longevity of the Iphone apps ,being an open source champion I believe that the best result for all ,would be for an adoption of a standard that allows all apps to be built for cross platform scalability. Did I just say that ...ahh ! as Martin Luther once said ....."I have a dream"

    • momentarydivision
      I think there simply needs to be a happy medium. People want a great UX on a mobile device but they also want the enterprise ability to perform all of their usual PC functions which..combined is usually difficult.

      I think netpads will eventually become more mainstream as they are a good balance of a robust device, multi-tasking and connectivity options.

      The whole world is building for iPhones but how long will it last? Will developers become sick of continually having to convert PC apps for ever-changing touch devices? Should they just embrace the change and challenge? Apart from developers - can users handle ever changing UX and UI which throws out the KISS approach of PC app development?

      My concern on O/S is the architecture, iPhones apps are being churned out by the millions but can users effectively manage all their apps and be able to access them without information overload. Whilst we bag windows, at the end of the day, it provides a familiar and simple platform to access your tools which for time-poor users which is really all an O/S should do.

      Whilst I'm ultimately a fence sitter of mobile devices versus. netbooks, I just question the scalability of mobile devices and operating systems and whether relying on firmware over hardware may hinder the futureproofing of these devices being the source of truth for the busy nerd.
    • Thanks all for the spirited debate , however I think we've reached an impasse. Only the ensuing months will provide the truth . I will revisit this later in the year to compare the state of play with my predictions.
    • peterkoevari
      Interesting reply Tony, and I understand your points. But allow me to retort :)

      OJ said that they will "in some way be embraced", while you're saying that they will be embraced full stop. Many people bought the Nokia N-Gage, but they're pretty much extinct now. Many people bought the Sega Saturn, I think you're getting the picture.

      If I were to put my money on a netpad that will be successful to a decent level, i'd back Microsoft instead of Apple. But i'm not a fanboy of any technology, I just buy what suits my needs, and sorry to say it... but it has to look aesthetic.

      I may have a negative approach to netpads, I concede to that point... but it's only because I just don't see where the innovation lies in netpads. Functionally, new netbooks with touchscreen functionality do the same thing + keyboard. So Tony, may I ask why you bag Microsoft negatively all the time, continually campaign how linux is the best OS out there and how MS OS's are terrible, but praise their netpad? :) A foot in both camps? LOL

      I remember back to when the iphone came out, and I don't remember geeks only being the cry. I remember "mac fans only" to start with, then it became a fashion symbol, albeit an expensive one... and now it's widely dominating the phone industry. Why? Innovation + design + cool features + ease of use = success.

      I still like having a real book in my hands vs an ebook, but for ebooks... you need a good screen and ease of reading/use.

      I just really don't see netpads as the way forward, it may be a phase, it may lead to better innovation of devices most people will continue to use... like laptops and netbooks.

      I am happy to be proven wrong later, and hopefully that will be me proven wrong because computers have been taken to such a new level that i'm glad to be alive to see that kind of evolution of technology.

    • I of course agree with OJ , Netpads will be embraced and I believe much more widely than expected. Yes I agree that they will need to mature and the early versions may not be taken on board as the punters wait and see.

      I take your point OJ that you don't like devices that try to cover devices that try to cover functionality that they form-factor isn't really designed to accommodate. However is your view that of the general populace only time will tell?

      Pete I have to say that I am disappointed by your negative approach given that you are involved in the development life cycle. Also in one breath you say that it's great they are developing them and then in the other they won't be embraced and not cool. A foot in both camps ? Which is it?

      I think you need to step back and think about when the iphone came out , geeks only was the cry , now every second person owns one. Don't under estimate the marketing power of the big boys. They have invested far to much for them to fail.

      I do agree the ebook capability will be good and in this case size does matter, the size of the application will make the difference. Have you ever tried reading book on a smartphone , very tedious experience.
    • OJ
      Netpads will in some way be embraced. I'd put money on it. What I wouldn't put money on people embracing the early versions. The iPad is a good example of something attempting to be more than it is. Yes it can read eBooks, is that enough to warrent the cost? In my view, no. In the view of the Fanboy, probably!

      Trendiness isn't the kicker here in my view. The kicker is how easy it is to move around with one of these devices given that so many other devices already exist which are smaller, cheaper and almost as functional. We have lightweight eBook readers with insane battery life. We have phones that can do craploads of functions (eg. the iPhone, Android). The Netpad is sitting between them, attempting to be new when it's not.

      I personally don't use the iPhone for reading books of any kind though lots of other people do. It's a tedious and painful experience in my view. I'd much rather have the physical media, or something like a Nook or a Kindle DX.

      This reaffirms my point: I don't like devices that try to cover functionality that they form-factor isn't really designed to accommodate.
    • peterkoevari
      I think you have a very good point there OJ... it doesn't matter who invented/manufactured sliced bread, computers, electric guitars, push up bras, the point is we're glad to have it.

      I don't know why... but every time I hear netpad, i feel like i'm listening to an ad on TV like... "Now available, the netpad with wings! for extra support when you really need it" LOL

      Seriously, it's great they're developing them... but will the end users embrace? My vote is on NOT, aside from geeks who just want it because they can. There's nothing "cool" about netpads, trendy, let alone a fashion statement.

      Of course, any device that can read ebooks is great as a delivery system for books, magazines, etc... but you can do that on iphone and most new devices already.
    • OJ
      I know how much you love Microsoft *ahem*, so I'll let that comment slide ;) Let me just say that you don't have to be bitter when a company you don't like actually does something good! It's about improving the marketplace, increasing the competition and improving the experience for the end-user.

      In my view, Apple could learn a lot from Microsoft's effort and vice versa.

      I am fairly certain that over time the issues that I have with the usability and clunkiness of the device will slowly disappear. They'll no doubt try to make this as frictionless as possible otherwise the market will balk at it. It doesn't matter how cool it is if you can't walk around with something clanging on your belt.

      Rather than have to wear rings on the fingers, or anything for that matter, I'd like to see something similar to what they're doing with the cameras when it comes to recognising what it is you're looking at. If they can detect that stuff, why can't they detect hand/finger movements as well? Having nothing on the hands out of the ordinary would be best imho. I realise that this would be a very difficult technical problem to solve, and detecting motion via something attached to the fingers is way easier, but I'm thinking "best case". As far as the rest of hte device is concerned, I could easiliy deal with something in the sunnies. The worry I have there is the transmission medium affecting your head! :)

      I'm looking forward to seeing the next version that these guys produce!
    • Ahh Pete ,
      Spoken like a true Mac Fanboy :)
      Was I right about netpads taking off, hmmm,believe I said that the year 2010 would be the year of the netpad. I guess that still leaves me 10 or so months to see if I am right , a little to early to call yet.

      As I said before I believe he IPad falls short of the mark ( it will sell big though) however it's disruptive affect on the market will mean serious development and marketing will be applied by the other players.

      The net affect (scuse the pun ) will be the beginning of convergence . Also authors like yourself will embrace the platform as a serious avenue for ebook sales.

      On the gaming platform side I am not so sure and will investigate further as I am aware of some cutting edge work being done in the QUT and RMIT universities .

    • peterkoevari
      Interesting point of view. Were you right that netpads are "taking off"? yes and no. So far, there is a lot of development, but whether or not it will actually take off depends on customers adopting it and sales of the devices.

      I agree with OJ, the iPad looks like a well designed device but it's HUGE and impractical. And if they keep developing it to make it smaller and add a phone, what do you end up with? the iPhone! Reverse development in action.

      Would I buy a pad/tablet/sleet/thingy? nope... no idea why I need one. If I want to use one to write my next book, no way i'm touching glass screens to punch keys for up to 200,000 words, I want a keyboard!

      And i'm not wanting to use a pretend pen ALA Nintendo DSi, as i'll feel like i'm 12 years of age, or 60 years of age using it.

      My iphone really does everything I would use the iPad or tablet devices for... so in my mind, those devices are still a fail.

      But when the 6th sense devices come out, THAT will excite me.

      But that's just my 2c

      OJ, good point about games machines. I use my xbox360 for almost everything, from streaming video, viewing pictures, watching dvds, kareoke, and games!
    • As always OJ astute commentary ,
      Your right it was a clunky prototype , however I can assure you the end product would be a far cry from this. Miniaturisation is at stage where the device could be imbedded in watches and sunglasses and the like. The controllers could be rings on your fingers, the avenues are countless. If I had sais to you in 1980 that we would be carrying phones around everywhere we go you would have told me I was “puffin muffins”.

      Agree with your Apple comments , I think they have fallen short of the mark, however they as usual have a great disruptive affect on the market . This will expedite the other companies into hitting the market to compete. As much as it hurts me to say it , from what I have seen the Microsoft Courier which looks like a compendium , dual screens and a camera in the back really hit’s the mark in usability and portability.

      Point taken and agreed that there will be many misses when it comes to hitting the mark however that’s part of the evolutionary development path.
    • OJ
      I thought the 6th sense thing was pretty amazing, but I didn't see it easily blending into our lives just yet. This might be because of the clunky nature of the prototype, but I don't think so. To me it's more that the devices need to fit with us, not the other way round. Until we see things being embedded in our person, this kind of idea will be painful to interact with and carry around.

      Apple have a way of making a market that no other company does. The iPhone was one, the iPad will most likely be another. Not for me perhaps, but for others. But the iPad is an oversized iPhone that doesn't have a phone in it! It's not a device that will easily blend into your routine. Carrying around something like that isn't feasible for most of us. And if it is it's still a pain in the butt.

      In the future I see quite a few attempts at converging devices heading our way. Take a look at games consoles and you'll see it's been happening for ages. They're not longer just games consoles, but home entertainment systems, video players, stereos, media downloaders, dishwashers, tea makers and comms devices. It's a far cry from the days of the NES! I know people buy these things because they love the games, but most people (and I'm generalising here) will use it as a games console and not much more. To me it's an example of where devices are converging and it's not working.

      I hope that doesn't happen with everything. I don't want to have to carry around one device that does 5 things I want, and 100 things I don't want -- esp when I still have to pay for those 100 things!
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